Australian Real-Time Macroeconomic Database

Macroeconomic Database

This website provides a macroeconomic database for Australia which includes measures of GDP, its components, prices, and key monetary and labour market statistics over the last fifty years as published and revised in real time. The vintages of data are collated from various sources and accommodate multiple definitional changes, providing a comprehensive description of the macroeconomic environment as experienced by Australian policy- and decision-makers.

For an introductory overview and a background for researchers, see Lee, K., Olekalns, N., Shields, K. and Wang, Z (2011a), University of Melbourne Discussion Paper 1132, The Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis.

Detailed description of data collection methods, data sources and any specific information on the variables are provided in the separate datasets. These are also collated in K. Shields and Z. Wang's (2011b) Australian Real-Time Database: A Users Manual

Fiscal Database

This website also provides a total of twelve variables relating to budget outcomes over time plus nine variables describing the evolving state of the government's debt/wealth. The database goes back to 1901 for key variables up. For an introduction, see Lee, K. J. Morley, K. Shields and M. S. Tan (2018), ‘The Australian Real-Time Fiscal Database: An Overview and an Illustration of its Use in Analysing Planned and Realised Fiscal Policies’, CAMA Working Paper.

Detailed description of data collection methods, data sources and any specific information on the variables are provided in the separate datasets. These are also collated in the following manual: Australian Fiscal Real-Time Database: A Users Manual.

Acknowledgements

Funding from the ARC Discovery project DP0988112 (2009 - 2011) : 'Australian Real-Time Data: Construction, Analysis and Implications for Real-Time Policy Making' and from the ARC Discovery Project DP140103029 (2014 – 2017) : ‘Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data’ is gratefully acknowledged.

We would also like to thank the librarians from the University of Melbourne, the Australian National University, the State Library of Victoria and the National Library of Australia for their assistance in locating historical sources of data and relevant microfiche collection. Finally, the staff at the ABS House, Canberra have been helpful at every stage and we would like to thank Malcolm Adamson, Nicola Cross and, in particular, Peter Rossiter, whose diligent archiving of key national accounts series and in depth knowledge of the various changing sources of the data series over time has helped fill many 'missing gaps' in this database.

Contact Us

If you are able to provide any of the missing historical data, please e-mail Professor Kalvinder Shields (k.shields@unimelb.edu.au).

Latest Update

Data has last been updated from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as of April 13th 2017 and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as of May 16th 2017.

Past Data Announcements

  • 16 May 2017: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 13 April 2017: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 12 April 2017: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 12 April 2017: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 17 March 2017: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 17 March 2017: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 17 March 2017: All the variables under GDP, Components of GDP and Selected Tables have been updated
  • 17 February 2017: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 17 February 2017: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 20 January 2017:: The Balance of Payment series has been updated.
  • 20 January 2017: The Original Consumer Price Index has been updated.
  • 20 January 2017: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 20 January 2017: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 20 January 2017: All the variables under GDP, Components of GDP and Selected Tables have been updated
  • 1 December 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 1 December 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 2 November 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 2 November 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 5 October 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 5 October 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 9 September 2016: All the variables under GDP, Components of GDP and Selected Tables have been updated
  • 9 September 2016: The Balance of Payment series has been updated.
  • 9 September 2016: The Original Consumer Price Index has been updated.
  • 9 September 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 18 August 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 18 August 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 14 July 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 14 July 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 17 June 2016: All the variables under GDP, Components of GDP and Selected Tables have been updated
  • 17 June 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 17 June 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 20 May 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 20 May 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 22 April 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 31 March 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 31 March 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 11 March 2016: The Balance of Payment series has been updated.
  • 11 March 2016: The Original Consumer Price Index has been updated.
  • 11 March 2016: All the variables under GDP, Components of GDP and Selected Tables have been updated
  • 04 March 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 19 February 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.
  • 08 February 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 21 January 2016: All the Monetary Aggregates have been updated.
  • 21 January 2016: All the Labour Force variables have been updated.insert di

The real-time data is organised under five broad headings according to their focus and the frequency of their measurement as listed below. A detailed description of data collection methods, data sources and any specific information on the variables are provided in the separate datasets. These are also collated in K. Shields and Z. Wang's (2011b) Australian Real-Time Database: A Users Manual.

Real Time Fiscal Database

Research using Australian Real-Time Data

  • The Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and An Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis (6,975KB, 42 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, The Economic Record (2012), in press.
  • Meta Taylor Rule for the UK and Australia: Accommodating Regime Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Analysis using Model Averaging Methods (648KB, 37 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, University of Melbourne Discussion Paper 1138, January 2012
  • The Australian Real-Time Database: An Overview and An Illustration of its Use in Business Cycle Analysis(6,975KB, 42 pages) by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns, Kalvinder Shields and Zheng Wang, University of Melbourne Discussion Paper 1132, July 2011.
  • Real-Time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves by Anthony Garratt, James Mitchell, Shaun P. Vahey and Elizabeth C. Wakerly, CAMA Working Paper 34/2010, the Australian National University, December 2010.
  • Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Australia by Gordon de Brouwer and John Gilbert, Economic Record, volume 81, issue 253, pages 6-18, June 2005.
  • Output Gaps in Real Time: How Reliable Are They? by David Gruen, Tim Robinson and Andrew Stone, Economic Record, volume 81, issue 252, pages 6-18, March 2005.
  • The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data by Christopher Bajada, Australian Economic Review, volume 35, issue 3, pages 276-286, September 2002.
  • The Nature and Extent of Revisions to Australian Macroeconomic Data by Robert D. Brooks, Gabrielle E. Berman and Sinclair R. Davidson, Applied Economics Letters, volume 5, issue 3, pages 169-174, March 1998.
  • GDP Growth Rates Calculated from Quarterly National Accounts, Discrepancies and Revisions by Guay C. Lim, Australian Economic Review, issue 72, pages 21-28, November 1985.

Useful References

Real-Time Research Funded by ARC Discovery Grant DP0988112

Research Events

  • 7th Annual CIRANO Workshop on Data Revision in Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy

    • Location and Date:Montreal, Canada; 7-8th, October 2011.
    • Paper Presented: The Meta Taylor Rule by Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kalvinder Shields, July 2011.
  • The Econometric Society Australasian Meeting in 2011 (ESAM11)
    • Location and Date: The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; July 4-7th, 2011.
    • Paper Presented: The Meta Taylor Rule by Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kalvinder Shield, July 2011.

  • Royal Economic Society Annual Conference

    • Location and Date: The Royal Holloway, London, UK; April 2011.
    • Paper Presented: Measuring the Natural Output Gap Using Actual and Expected Output Data by Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper, University of Nottingham, March 2011.

  • Bank of England Seminar

    • Location and Date: The Bank of England, London, UK; March 2011.
    • Paper Presented: Measuring the Natural Output Gap Using Actual and Expected Output Data by Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper, University of Nottingham, March 2011.

  • Australian Conference on Quantitative Macroeconomics

    • Location and Date: The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; December 19-20th, 2010.
    • Paper Presented: Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real Time Data is Available by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper in Economics no. 08/17, University of Leicester, June 2008.
  • Workshop on Forecasting and Decision-Making in Real-Time
    • Location and Date: The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; November 25-26th, 2010.
    • Invited Speakers:

      Assoc. Prof. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, University of Groningen, Netherlands,

      Prof. Kevin Lee, University of Nottingham, UK,

      Prof. James Morley, University of New South Wales, Australia,

      Prof. Simon van Norden, HEC Montral (formerly known as: cole des Hautes tudes commerciales de Montral), Canada,

      Assoc. Prof. Kalvinder Shields, University of Melbourne, Australia

      Prof. Shaun P. Vahey, Australian National University, Australia.

  • Conference on Real Time Data Analysis, Methods and Applications
    • Location and Date: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia/CIRANO, Philadelphia, US; October 18-19th, 2010.
    • Paper Presented: Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One? by Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, volume 22, issue 1, pages 43-60, January 2011.
  • Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group
    • Location and Date: Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol, Cyprus; September 2010.
    • Paper Presented: Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One? by Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, volume 22, issue 1, pages 43-60, January 2011.
  • Eurostat Colloquium on Modern Tools for Business Cycle Analysis
    • Location and Date: Luxembourg; September 2010.
    • Paper Presented: Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One? by Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, volume 22, issue 1, pages 43-60, January 2011.
  • 10th EABCN Workshop on Uncertainty over the Business Cycle
    • Location and Date: The European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany; March 2009.
    • Paper Presented: Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real Time Data is Available by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper in Economics no. 08/17, University of Leicester, June 2008.
  • Conference of the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group
    • Location and Date: Birkbeck College, London, UK; September 2008.
    • Paper Presented: Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real Time Data is Available by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper in Economics no. 08/17, University of Leicester, June 2008.
  • International Institute of Forecasters 28th International Symposium on Forecasting
    • Location and Date: Nice, France; June 2008.
    • Paper Presented: Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information When Real Time Data is Available by Kevin Lee, Nilss Olekalns and Kalvinder Shields, Discussion Paper in Economics no. 08/17, University of Leicester, June 2008.

Other Databases

If you are able to provide any of the missing historical data, please e-mail Assoc. Prof. Kalvinder Shields (k.shields@unimelb.edu.au)