Tracking the economy over booms to busts

​The problem​

Official statistics about the state of the economy are released with a lag. But businesses and government need timely information to inform decision making. Is unemployment high and expected to remain high? Will inflationary pressures push up cost of living? Are we heading towards recession?​

The research​​

CASiE – a survey of Consumer Attitudes, Sentiments and Expectations, has been tracking the economy for over 45 years. It provided information about how Australians were affected during the GFC, COVID pandemic and most recently during a period of high cost-of-living. With other monthly releases (such as retail sales and housing approvals), this information is combined by the team into a Nowcasting model to provide an indication of the state of GDP now.​

The impact​​

Data about how consumers perceive their finances and the economy provide valuable information about the likely trajectory of consumption and economic growth. Monthly releases of Indexes – on unemployment expectations to inflationary pressures – provide timely information and are closely monitored by government and private enterprises to inform decision making. In 2021, for example, their value was especially evident, appearing in Treasury Budget Paper No.1 and the RBA Statement on Monetary Policy.​

Department: Melbourne Institute
Area: Macroeconomics​