ANZ's Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga presented the Centre for Asian Business and Economics Public Lecture at the University of Melbourne, on Wednesday, November 22, 2023.
China and India: Our Journey Ahead
Over the past two decades, the global (and Australian) economy has been dominated by China’s rise. China achieved the largest poverty reduction in history and became the world’s second-largest economy and the largest trading nation. Despite this, many foreshadowed even greater times ahead. However, in recent years, growth has slowed and foreign capital flows have exited. These developments are not, for the most part, the result of transitory conditions that policy can easily address. China’s economic fundamentals have shifted; irrevocably. The age of China’s economic exceptionalism has ended, and the search for alternative opportunities has commensurately strengthened. China will remain much larger than any other economy in the region, but perspectives are increasingly shifting to the West.
India looms large in that vision. India is already the world’s fifth-largest economy despite having a GDP per capita of less than USD 3,000. India’s rise is not guaranteed, but the shift in conditions is undeniable. The pandemic era shifted global working patterns in ways India is uniquely placed to capture. The Covid period also saw India move on its physical infrastructure, to narrow the gap with what the IMF labelled “world-class public digital infrastructure”. While geopolitics for many economies has deteriorated, India is in something of a geopolitical sweet spot.
Hindsight is a wonderful forecaster. China’s performance over the last two decades is now treated as transparently predictable when it was anything but at the time. There also seems to be implied criticism of India’s development because it is charting its own path. Economic development has no tried-and-tested recipe. India is not China, but the China of two decades ago didn’t much resemble the China of today either.
No doubt India has an unenviable to-do list. But the to-dos are what give the upside.
Professor Helen Hu, Director of the Centre for Asian Business and Economics, and Richard Yetsenga, Group Chief Economist, ANZ
About the speaker
Richard Yetsenga is the Group Chief Economist and Head of Research at ANZ, based in Sydney. He leads the bank's global research team, focusing on Australia, New Zealand and Asia.
Richard joined ANZ in 2011 from HSBC in Hong Kong where he was the managing director of Emerging Market Strategy. Richard has also held economics roles with Deutsche Bank and the Australian Government. Richard publishes on issues of broad economic relevance, including climate change, technology, inequality, and the benefits of diversity.
The ANZ Research team has been recognised with more than 40 top-three rankings in major industry surveys across Australia, New Zealand and Asia in the past six years, alongside numerous industry awards.
Richard regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg TV and other regional media, and his work has been published in the Lowy Institute's The Interpreter. He is an editorial contributor to the Australian Financial Review, The Australian, The Wall Street Journal, Hong Kong Economic Journal, Singapore’s The Business Times, and Japan's Nikkei.