Trading partners: the evolution of Ottoman-European trade

With evidence of market linkages between Turkey and Europe stretching back to the 15th century, researchers are undertaking the first comprehensive empirical analysis of the evolution of trade between the regions.

The Evolution of Ottoman-European Market Linkages, 1469-1914

Using existing data on traded goods, researchers Yong Song and Laura Panza are investigating the relationship between the commodity markets in the two key regions between 1469 and1914.

The pair will analyse the process of market integration between Istanbul and 19 European cities, developing a new and coherent measure of market integration based on dynamic factor models.


Through the assessment of the existence and evolution of market integration, this project will provide key insights into market efficiency, which has key implications for economic development.

The project will provide a robust methodological solution to a common problem in the measurement of integration involving datasets over a long period of time with incomplete observations.

It will also test the relationship between economic development and conflict by focusing on the impact of war on long-run dynamic price equilibria.

Chief investigator

Dr Yong Song

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