Applied Micro Seminar - Chris Parsons (UWA)

Title: Peacefully demobilizing rebels: Identity, emotional cues, and the FARC

Authors:  Juan P. Aparicio, Michael Jetter & Christopher Parsons

Abstract: In the early 2000s, the Colombian government aired messages during games of the national football team, urging FARC rebels to demobilize. We first study the strategy’s effectiveness, leveraging game dates, kick-off times, and spatial-temporal variation in rain-induced signal strength in a municipality-day-level panel spanning 2003-2016. Over 1,000 rebels demobilized because of family-themed (but not national-unity-themed) messages, received during unexpected losses (i.e., negative emotional cues). We then model a rebel’s demobilization decision, combining identity salience with their emotional state. Finally, we corroborate the model’s predictions examining family- versus non-family-specific holidays and local climatic anomalies.